posted by Mike Madison at 10:47 AM /
Dean Spahr prepared and shared with me an interesting chart that forecasts School District expenditures vs. student population for the next five years or so -- or, in other words, a cost per student" illustration that points out that Mt. Lebanon's "cost per student" is likely to go up, up, and up.
The whole thing can be accessed online here.
A smaller version appears below:
I don't know what his sources and assumptions are. In the comments, I'm sure that he can answer questions.
The whole thing can be accessed online here.
A smaller version appears below:
I don't know what his sources and assumptions are. In the comments, I'm sure that he can answer questions.
Labels: mt. lebanon school district
5 Comments:
Thank you, Dean Spahr, for converting very relevant data in the Districts' "April 2009 - five year look....Forecast of Budgeted Expenditures" to the bar chart/graph! This District forecast, in spreadsheet format,was requested by the Audit & Finance Committee of the Board and presented during the April 13, 2009 Board meeting. It was subsequently posted on the District website, and is difficult to locate. This is the forecast that many of us refer to that indicates the possibility of a 45% increase in real estate millage in 5 years, explained as follows :
The millage rate for what Deans' chart shows as 2010(Projected)is the current 24.11 mills for 2009-2010. The District forecast millage for what Dean shows as 2015(Projected),5 years hence, is 34.98 mills, 45% higher than the current millage level.
Deans' graphic illustration is worrysome enough....the resulting millage implications are downright scary !
Mike:
My source for the numbers are from the districts own budget forecast which can be viewed at http://tinyurl.com/MTLSD-Budget-Docs.
The numbers used were from the forecast showing a $117 million HS and 30% PSER.
I find it easier to comprehend financial figures if I plot the information out and thought others might too.
I don't have any real assumptions except that if this forecast holds true, the district will need to find approximately $31,000,000 in new revenue in 2014-15 on top of the $72,000,000 million we're spending now.
The boards have cut budgets for materials, books, etc. every year for the past 5 or so years just to hold the line on millage rates.
I can't imagine what impact the need for another #31,000,000 will have on staffing, programs etc. in the near future.
Dean Spahr
This 45% increase in millage may not be the last of our worries.
According to the Pennsylvania School Funding Campaign in Harrisburg, PA. school district subsidies are endangered by the Budget Battle. According to the Funding Campaign:
School districts receive monthly subsidy payments from the state. The subsidy pays for special education, vocational education, basic education, and debt service for construction.
Districts already missed the July 2009 payment. If the State budget is not completed by the end of August, school districts subsidy payments statewide will be behind by $1.29 billion because the first two scheduled subsidy payments were not paid this fiscal year.
Federal stimulus funds for schools are also being back because they must be appropriated by the State Legislature.
The loss of some or all of these funds will put even more upward pressure on the millage rate.
Last comment was made by Jonathan Cavell JonathanCavell@gmail.com, almost forgot the policy.
Burgher Jon's comment above refers to the following comment, which I deleted earlier because "Burgher Jon" didn't include his name (though he's shared his name before, I didn't have it at hand):
Wouldn't the numbers return to a more acceptable/expected level once the renovation has been paid for?
How does this chart compare with a similar one from the construction of the high school in the first place? Other major work?
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