Reality-Checking the Reassessments: Part 2

This article is part of a series examining how Mt. Lebanon is likely to be affected by the recent county-wide reassessment. For other articles in the series, see Blog-Lebo’s Reassessment Series. —Tom

In our previous article, Reality-Checking the Reassessments, we compared the new assessments to recent residential property sales in Mt. Lebanon to see if we could learn whether they fairly represented actual market prices. Taken as a whole, they seemed reasonable (“not horrible” was the technical term I used), but for many individual properties, they seemed far from reality. Also, it seemed that less-expensive properties tended to be overassessed and more-expensive properties underassessed. So there seems to be some cause for grumbling.

Now we perform a second reality-check: Do the new assessments do better than the old assessments? (Recall that the motivation for the new assessments was to remedy the inequities of the old assessments.) To help answer this question, we return to our data set of recent Mt. Lebanon residential property sales (courtesy UCSUR) and compare recent sales to the new assessments. But this time, we also compare them to the old assessments, to see whether new or old are closer to the actual market.

The easiest way to see how new compares to old is, well, to see how they compare. So here’s another statistical plot, much like the plot from our previous article, but this time with two dots for each home sold in Mt. Lebanon in 2010 or 2011. Take a look and then I’ll explain more below.

(Click image for a printable high-resolution version in PDF format.)

Here’s what’s going on. For every home sold in Mt. Lebanon, there are two dots, one red and one blue, connected by a horizontal gray line. The vertical position of that line gives the home’s actual sales price. The horizontal positions of the dots give the old and new assessed values of the same home. The red dot represents the old assessment; the blue, the new assessment. You can think of a house’s assessed value as having “traveled” along the horizontal line from the red dot (old) to the blue dot (new). The question, then, is whether they traveled toward (or away from) fair-market prices.

To help answer that question, we have added a 45-degree reference line to show where the assessed values would line up if they perfectly reflected market prices, as estimated by our recent sales data. To the extent that a home is underassessed, it will appear to the left of this line; to the extent it is overassessed, to the right. The actual market is a bit of a moving target, so we won’t worry too much about assessments near the reference line, just those far from it.

So what can we see? First, the blue dots are almost always to the right of the red dots. That means that most of the homes had their assessments increase. And that’s what we would expect, given that property values have generally increased since the old assessments took place. So far, so good.

Second, the blue dots are closer to the 45-degree reference line than the red dots. That means the new assessments are closer to actual market prices than the old. In other words, the new assessments seem to be closer to reality than the old assessments. That’s a clear improvement.

Okay. So the new assessments are truer.

But are they fairer? We’ll look into that question next time.

Until then, comments are open. Let us know your thoughts.

Reality-Checking the Reassessments

This article is part of a series examining how Mt. Lebanon is likely to be affected by the recent county-wide reassessment. For other articles in the series, see Blog-Lebo’s Reassessment Series. —Tom

In our previous article, Making Sense of the New Assessments: Winners and Losers, we looked at the reassessment’s likely effects on your property taxes. In this article, we look at the assessment, itself, and ask whether it’s likely to do what it’s supposed to do – make all property owners pay a fair share of property taxes based on the actual market values of their properties.

To help answer that question, let’s look at the selling prices of Mt. Lebanon residential properties on the market in 2010 and 2011 and compare them to the newly assessed values of the same properties. Selling prices make a good reality check because they define the market. Sellers aren’t willing to sell for less than they think the market will bear, and buyers aren’t willing to pay more than they think they must. If the new assessments reflect the market reality, they should be similar to their respective sales prices.

Using a data set of recent Allegheny County residential-property sales provided by the Pittsburgh Neighborhood and Community Information System at the University Center for Social and Urban Research, we identified 1,184 Mt. Lebanon residences sold in 2010 and 2011 for between $50 thousand and $500 thousand (our Mt. Lebanon–specific data set). We then merged that sales data with our previous data on property reassessments and compared the sales prices to the corresponding newly reassessed property values.

Overall, the homes in the data set sold for an average of 4% above their newly assessed values, which supports the notion that the new assessments are generally close to actual market prices and therefore not horrible. For individual properties, however, some of the new assessments are hard to fathom.

Here is a plot showing how each home’s sales price compares to its newly assessed value. Each point on the plot represents a home that was sold in Mt. Lebanon in 2010 or 2011. Its horizontal position gives its new assessment value, and its vertical position gives its actual sales price. If the two are the same – and they ought to be close if the reassessment is working properly – the point ought to fall on the gray reference line running across the plot at 45 degrees. To the extent a point misses the line, its corresponding assessment can be said to be “over” or “under” its market price. Points to the left of the 45-degree line represent underassessment; to the right, overassessment.

As you can see, most of the points are reasonably close to the reference line. But many aren’t.

Those far-away points represent properties that sold for considerably higher or lower than their supposedly true-to-the-market assessed values. Those are the properties we ought to start asking questions about. Likewise, some of the owners of those properties have a good reason to appeal their new assessments. Conversely, some of those properties seem to be way underassessed. The local taxing bodies might want to look more carefully at those deeply discounted assessments.

To see if there are any geographic patterns in the under/overassessments, let’s put all 1,184 of those properties on a map.

The Blog-Lebo Reassessment Reality-Check Map



Blues represent assessments below sales price; red, above sales price.
Click on properties to see their details.
(Full Screen)

Overall, things look pretty evenly distributed. But, if you look more closely, you can see some small patterns in certain areas. For example, on the north side of Scrubgrass Road, nearly ten recently sold properties were assessed at considerably higher than their sales prices, but their neighbors on the south side of the street had relatively gentle assessments. Anybody know what might be going on there?

Take a look at the map and let me know what you find. As usual, discuss it in the comments section. Let me know if you see anything interesting or want Blog-Lebo to take a look at something else about the reassessments.

Blog-Lebo would like to thank reader Lisa Brown for suggesting that we compare the assessments to recent sales. (Got an idea for an interesting analysis? Let us know in the comments.)

P-G: Early exit tough for Lebo

Although Mt. Lebanon's 45-42 loss to Seneca Valley Saturday was certainly an upset on paper, Blue Devils coach Joe David said he wasn't surprised by the Raiders' ability, noting that they were certainly better than their No. 14 seed would indicate.

"I think they're a very good team. They're long, they're big," David said. "I think they're capable of winning the whole thing."

Read the full article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12054/1211848-361.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Trib: Mt. Lebanon school officials might have to spend to save

The Mt. Lebanon School District is considering a $41,000 study to see if it can raise up to $30 million in donations toward its $110 million high school renovation, but some school board members have doubts about hiring professional fundraisers when budget deficits loom.

The board of school directors will vote next month on whether to hire Dallas, Texas-based Pursuant Ketchum to study the feasibility of a capital fundraising campaign. A contract with Pursuant Ketchum was originally up for a vote Monday, but questions about cost of the study, the ability to solicit large donations for a project that's already under way, and the cost of subsequent fundraising led the board to unanimously table a vote until March.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/s_782989.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

Additional article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12054/1211950-55.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Making Sense of the New Assessments: Winners and Losers (Updated 2)

This article is part of a series examining how Mt. Lebanon is likely to be affected by the recent county-wide reassessment. For other articles in the series, see Blog-Lebo’s Reassessment Series. —Tom

Update 2012-02-22 00:10: I’ve updated the map to show some properties that were previously not showing up.

Update 2012-02-24 19:50: Map change: I was getting feedback that the colors were too subtle and that patterns in the more moderate property-tax changes, which affect the majority of residents, were hard to see. To make these patterns more visible, I’ve revised the color gradient to focus on the range –50% (blue) through +50% (red). If you’ve looked at the map before, the colors should now seem more vivid.

Now that the new property assessments for Mt. Lebanon are out, everyone is wondering what they mean. To help make sense of it all, I’m planning on doing a few articles on the subject.

First off: How do the assessments affect your taxes and, under the new assessments, who wins and loses?

Here’s my understanding of how it works. The county and municipal governments and, to a larger extent, the school district all collect taxes based on the value of your property. The more valuable your property, the more you pay. (They also collect taxes based on how much you earn, but those taxes aren’t affected by the reassessment; I won't talk about them further.)

What determines how valuable your property is? The official county assessment. In theory, this assessment is supposed to reflect reality, but, in practice, assessments tend to get out of alignment with actual market prices. When they get too far out of alignment, people start complaining, and eventually there’s a big reassessment in which everybody’s property is supposed to be reassessed using the same standard.

One of those big reassessments just happened for Allegheny County, and yesterday the County released the results of those assessments for Mt. Lebanon.

I was able to analyze some of the new assessment data, and here’s what I’ve got so far. Understand, however, that I’m simplifying some of the calculations and making some educated guesses here; reality may differ from my predictions. For example, I’m sure there are some properties that get special tax incentives, but I’m not accounting for them. I trust that you have the good sense to take what I’m about to show you with a grain of salt.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff.

First, for most property owners (82%) the reassessment won’t change their property taxes by more than 25%. About half of property owners will have their taxes increase; about half, decrease.

About 12% of property owners, under the new assessment, will have their property taxes go up by more than 25%. These are the people who “lose” under the new assessment. Only about 6% will “win” and have their taxes go down by 25% or more.

Perhaps the best way to understand the reassessment is to see its effects on a map. I was able to combine assessment data with GIS data to make a map of how things are likely to play out here in Mt. Lebanon. (I’d like to thank Commissioner Kelly Fraasch, the Mt. Lebanon GIS department, and researcher Christopher Briem for their generous help in getting the data I needed. I’d also like to thank James Fraasch and Bill Lewis for their feedback on earlier drafts of this map that led to substantial improvements. All errors in the map, of course, are mine alone. And if you find any, please let me know.)

The Blog-Lebo map of winners and losers in the reassessment game


Hotter colors represent property-tax increases; cooler colors, decreases.
Click on properties to see their details.
(Full Screen)

In that map, hotter colors (oranges and reds) represent tax increases; cooler colors (purples and blues) represent tax decreases. There’s also a lot of gray, representing taxes that didn’t change much. You can also click on properties to see their details and get links to the county assessment web site to do deeper research.

Take a look at your home (or business) and see how the assessment is likely to affect you. Note that if your home’s assessment went up, your taxes could go up or down. It all depends on how much your assessment went up compared to the community, as a whole. The community-wide total increased by about a third, so unless your assessment went up by a third or more, your taxes will actually decrease. In the map, I’ve done the calculations for you: just click on your property and look for the line that reads “Estimated Property Tax Increase.”

There are a lot of interesting patterns in that map. What stands out to you? If you see anything you want to discuss, post a comment below.

As for me, I plan to look into the data further and post more about it soon. If you see anything you want me to look into, or can spot a problem with the map, please let me know in a comment.

KDKA: Southern Suburbs Receive New Property Assessments

Property owners in the southern suburbs of Allegheny County are getting an early look at their 2012 assessment numbers online.

So far, many of them are not happy.

“How can three identical houses have different assessments?” a Mt. Lebanon homeowner asked. “There’s no rhyme or reason!”

Read the full article (with video):

• pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2012/02/20/southern-suburbs-receive-new-property-assessments (KDKA)

Trib: Fitzgerald picks Mt. Lebanon attorney for Allegheny County solicitor

Allegheny County's executive has nominated an attorney from Mt. Lebanon for the post of county solicitor.

Andrew F. Szefi, 40, a partner in the Downtown law firm Goehring Rutter & Boehm, is a member of the practice's municipal law, litigation and real estate practice groups. He has experience as a litigator in employment discrimination, eminent domain and construction law cases.

Read the full article:

• http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_781986.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

P-G: Mt. Lebanon school directors talk options for budget deficit

Options discussed Monday for closing a $2 million Mt. Lebanon School District budget gap include increasing the property tax rate, dipping into discretionary cash and cutting programs and staff.

Also hanging over the district is a teachers' union grievance directors are negotiating to resolve that could cost as much as $1 million.

Read the full article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12046/1210357-55.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

The Almanac: Mt. Lebanon officials salute founding families

The Feb. 6 Mt. Lebanon commissioners meeting took on a celebratory feel as commissioners, state officials and residents marked the municipality's centennial anniversary inside the Mt. Lebanon municipal building.

The municipality was founded on Feb. 6, 1912, after residents living in the area wanted to separate themselves from Upper St. Clair and Scott Township.

Read the full article:

• www.thealmanac.net/alm/story10/02-08-2012-ML-centennial-meeting (The Almanac)

New Court-Ordered Assessments for Mt. Lebanon are now online

The county has just posted to its web site the new, court-ordered assessments for Mt. Lebanon. You can search for your new assessment here: Court Ordered Reassessment Values.

Please remember that these assessments won't take effect until the 2013 tax year, at the earliest.

Also, don't freak out if your assessment is higher. Most properties will have their assessed values go up. What matters is how much yours goes up compared the community as a whole.

I hope to do a deeper analysis shortly, when I can get some more data, and then I’ll post more on how the new assessments are likely to affect Mt. Lebanon – and you. Stay tuned.

P-G: One of 3 convicted killers gets new trial

One of three Mt. Lebanon High School classmates convicted of kidnapping and killing a drug dealer and then dumping his body in the Ohio River was granted a new trial Friday.

Jared Lischner, 30, was found guilty during a jury trial in 2003 of second-degree murder in the death of Andrew Jones. However, he claims he was not present when Mr. Jones died and did not know he would be killed.

Read the full article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12049/1211084-55.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

The Almanac: Patriotic quilt awarded to soldier from Mt. Lebanon

Aaron Steinberg of Mt. Lebanon has a full schedule. He works full-time for a uniform rental company and carries a full class load while a student at Community College of Allegheny County (CCAC).

Steinberg has lived life more than most 27-year-olds, including serving 13 months stationed in Fallujah, Iraq, while a member of the U.S. Army.

Read the full article:

• www.thealmanac.net/alm/story11/02-15-2012-Steinberg-quilt (The Almanac)

P-G: Inside the Program: Mt. Lebanon boys' basketball

After a 51-42 victory at Chartiers Valley Jan. 24, it looked like Mt. Lebanon was poised to challenge the Colts for the Class AAAA Section 4 title. That now looks unlikely after the Blue Devils (16-5, 11-2) were upset by Baldwin last weekend, but coach Joe David's squad has still established itself as a legitimate challenger in Class AAAA. Mt. Lebanon will likely finish second in the section, and wraps up its season tonight against an Upper St. Clair team that has already been eliminated from playoff contention.

Read the full article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12041/1209143-361-0.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Trib: Mt. Lebanon man waives hearing for restroom photos

A Mt. Lebanon man accused of taking photos of two boys in the men's room of a pizza shop waived his right to a preliminary hearing on Thursday.

Andrew Dahmen, 22, is accused of taking photos on Jan. 2 of a 5-year-old boy standing at a urinal in the men's room of Mineo's Pizza House on Washington Road in Mt. Lebanon, police said. Mt. Lebanon police said they found evidence that Dahmen, a pizza delivery driver, took photos of a second boy, who appeared to be about 5 years old, in the same restroom.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_780940.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

P-G: Athletes of the Week: DeAnn Ryan, Quaker Valley/Kamic Anyang, Mt. Lebanon

Last week: Anyang continued his hot play for the Mt. Lebanon boys basketball team, which is ranked No. 3 in Class AAAA.

The skinny: Anyang, whose first name is pronounced Kam-eesh, is a 6-foot-5 senior forward and is averaging a team-best 15 points per game. Anyang is well travelled. He was born in Sudan and lived in Egypt for four years prior to moving to Michigan in July 2002. After attending East Kentwood High School for three years, Anyang moved to Mt. Lebanon last March to live with his older brother, Deng, who works in Pittsburgh.

Read the full article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12041/1209170-116-0.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Trib: Garbage truck rolls down hill onto road in Mt. Lebanon

A garbage truck rolled down a hill in Mt. Lebanon and onto a busy roadway on Thursday morning when the driver could not stop it, police said.

No one was hurt in the incident that occurred about 7 a.m., when the driver of the Waste Management truck stopped on Crystal Drive and hopped out to load garbage, Mt. Lebanon police Lt. Aaron Lauth said.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/s_780810.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

PIHL: Playoff Pendulum Swings Through Mount Lebanon

The Penguins Cup Playoffs commence in little more than a month, and on Thursday night the Mount Lebanon Ice Arena will play host to a pair of PIHL games with significant postseason implications.

At 7:10 Mount Lebanon (12-4-1) takes on Norwin (9-6-2), as the Knights look to break a three-game losing streak. They currently hold the No. 7 spot in the Class AAA overall standings, and they would face state champion Upper St. Clair if the playoffs began tonight.

Read the full article:

• pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2012/02/09/mr-high-school-sports-pihl-playoff-pendulum-swings-through-mount-lebanon/ (KDKA)

Trib: Mt. Lebanon T station development could be 'big'

Developers could create prime real estate in Mt. Lebanon's Uptown business district out of thin air, if engineers' concepts for a deck above the Port Authority light-rail line come to fruition.

Under a contract with the municipality, engineers from Los Angeles-based AECOM have been studying how to utilize air rights Mt. Lebanon owns above the rails, perhaps by building on a deck that would cover the tracks. Mt. Lebanon Parking Authority purchased the air rights from the Port Authority in the 1980s. The rights passed to the municipality when it absorbed the Parking Authority last year.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_780613.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

Trib: Mt. Lebanon coaches cleared in disorderly conduct case

Two Mt. Lebanon youth football coaches were found not guilty of disorderly conduct, cleared on Wednesday by a district judge of accusations that they threatened a minor and a spectator after a football practice in August.

Judge James Motznik of Brookline found Jeffrey Borris and Michael Ventrone not guilty on two counts each of disorderly conduct. Police said the men became confrontational when a minor not on the team was struck by a football and threw it into a wooded area.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_780654.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

P-G: Stop the Jay Paterno and Mt. Lebanon rumors

Not much news on the Mt. Lebanon High School football coaching front. A coach won't be named until later this month or in March. But I will say this: Stop with the rumors that Jay Paterno is a candidate. HE IS NOT.

There have been a few comments on this blog about Jay Paterno being interested, and other people have mentioned that Jay Paterno might be a candidate for the Mt. Lebanon job. The reasoning is because his wife, the former Kelly Kolankiewicz, is from Mt. Lebanon.

Read the full article:

• blogs.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/varsity-blog/32780-stop-the-jay-paterno-and-mt-lebanon-rumors (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

P-G: 3 hospitalized from smoke in Mt. Lebanon fire

Three people were hospitalized for smoke inhalation after a mattress caught fire at a Mt. Lebanon apartment complex early today.

Platoon Chief Glenn Wallace said firefighters were called to 53 Academy Ave. by a woman who thought she smelled smoke about 2 a.m. Firefighters traced the smoke to a first-floor apartment with an unlocked door and found four people inside. Three of the occupants had to be awakened and needed assistance getting out of the apartment while a fourth made it out without help, he said.

Read the full article:

• www.postgazette.com/pg/12038/1208657-100.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Additional article (with video):

• www.wtae.com/news/30396336/detail.html (WTAE)

Winter Photo Exhibit at Galleria

Nancy Koch wrote to Blog-Lebo about a photo exhibit going on at the Galleria. —Tom

The Photographic Section of the Academy of Science and Art of Pittsburgh invites you to attend its 2012 Winter Galleria Photo Exhibit January 31 through February 12.

Hope to see you there.

Visit our web site at http://www.pghphoto.org.

P-G: Mt. Lebanon marks 100 years

Will A. Siegfried Jr.'s grandfather didn't waste any time as one of Mt. Lebanon's founding leaders in 1912.

According to records from the Historical Society of Mt. Lebanon, Willis H. Siegfried, four other commissioners and a solicitor worked hard to upgrade the then-township. They hired a road supervisor, an engineer and laborers, created a board of health, approved construction of electric poles, commissioned a sewer study and levied their first tax at 3 mills -- all in the first month.

Read the full article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12026/1206041-55-0.stm (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Trib: Reception kicks off Mt. Lebanon centennial

For residents in the north end of Mt. Lebanon, odds are that the land beneath their feet once was part of a farm owned by Fred Abbott's ancestors.

The farm took up 22 acres near the present-day intersection of Beverly and McFarland roads, settled by the Abbotts in the mid-1800s when the area was part of Scott. Once sold, it became the Colonial Heights subdivision in the late 1920s, when the opening of the Liberty Tunnel brought development to the South Hills suburbs.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/s_779433.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

Pop City: Mt. Lebanon celebrates 100 years, new hotel, and redeveloped high school

On February 6th, the town of Mt. Lebanon will celebrate 100 years with champagne, cake, and a toast to the future from some of the municipality's founding families. And indeed, there is much to look forward to in the near future, as Mt. Lebanon High School has embarked on a massive redevelopment project, and construction is underway on the town’s first hotel.

A groundbreaking ceremony was held last Thursday at Mt. Lebanon High School, following a 6-year planning process which had been marked by controversy, including questions about its cost. The school board gave final approval to the project last winter.

Read the full article:

• www.popcitymedia.com/devnews/mtlebanon020112.aspx (Pop City)

Trib: Mt. Lebanon student charged with rape, indecent assault

Police said today they arrested a Mt. Lebanon High School student in connection with three incidents involving rape, indecent assault, terroristic threats and harassment that occurred over the course of two years.

The 17-year-old suspect, whose identity police are not releasing because they charged him as a minor, was initially investigated in late January in connection with an alleged rape that took place in his car in September, said Mt. Lebanon police spokesman Lt. Aaron Lauth.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_779477.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

P-G: Mt. Lebanon grad Chad Cable helps develop Disney's 'Where's My Water?'

When Chad Cable was a toddler, his older brother, Clay, liked to mess with him by unplugging the controller from their video game console.

"From the moment he saw his older brother playing, he would sit and want to play, too," said their mother, Kim.

If the best revenge is living well, then mission accomplished.

Read the full article:

• www.post-gazette.com/pg/12032/1207191-51.stm (Pitsburgh Post-Gazette)

Trib: Transfer Anyang is helping Mt. Lebanon maintain Class AAAA potency

Mt. Lebanon boys basketball coach Joe David isn't surprised by his team's 13-4 record or its current nine-game winning streak.

And, with a player such as 6-foot-4 senior Kamic Anyang, why should he be?

The transfer from Grand Rapids, Mich., has been one of the WPIAL's biggest surprises this winter. He averages 14.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, numbers that only seem to get bigger the more comfortable Anyang gets in the Class AAAA No. 2 Blue Devils' system.

Read the full article:

• www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/highschool/s_779171.html (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)